USDINR – Rise could spook the markets

The USDINR after forming a bottom near the 58-58.50 zone started rising steadily and given a breakout out of a falling wedge on the weekly chart of USDINR. A falling wedge has a bullish implication and as per Thomas Bulkowski it has a 70% strike rate. Although lower time frame charts suggest that the rise could be arrested at 62.75-63.25 zone, which is an important level as per Fibonacci projections. Once this resistance is broken the next key level lies at 65.50-66.

Most of the movement depends on the RBI meet for a policy and a rate decision to be held on 5th Aug 2014. Generally there is a negative co-relation between the USDINR and the Indian indices. The benchmark indices have already started showing the signs of a top formation. With all the global new flow of the default of Argentina and rise in the US 30yr Treasury yields we are set for a volatile environment.

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