Oct series could be litmus test

ROLLOVER ANALYSIS 

OVERALL OUTLOOK

The Sept series began on a strong note and saw steady gains .However volatility increased towards the last half of the series ending with strong profit- taking and finally the index managed to close at 7912 netting loss of 43 pts for the series. The metals ,banking, realty and capital goods bore the brunt of selling pressure while the FMCG, IT and pharma sectors  predictably saw buying . Overall caution is advised at higher levels as the last few months have already seen a dream run up. Corporate results hold the key to vindicate the run up seen in several counters.

 

Nifty & Bank Nifty Overview

 

The Nifty saw rollover of 69 % compared to 71% in the previous month. The rollover was also higher compared to the 3-month average (68%) and the 6-month average (61%).This has been at a premium of 60 basis points as compared to 32 points in the previous month. However the point to note is the quantum of Nifty futures being more or less maintained at 16.51 mn.

Market-wide rolls were at 83 % vs. previous month’s 85 and the 3-month average of 83%.

 

Bank Nifty

The index saw rolls of 59% compared to 57% in the previous month. Rollover has been at a premium of 145 points compared to 45 points in the Aug series. However the mood appears tempered with slighter lower quantum of Bank Nifty futures at 1.61 mn to begin with which was at 1.66 mn in the beginning of Sept series.

 

Derivative Indicators

The Implied Volatility closed at 13.09% against 13.55% of the previous month while Historical vols closed at 13.37% vs. 15.33% of previous month. Any rise in volatility indicates sharp movement in index another leading Derivative Indicator, the Nifty PCR opened on a negative note this month at 0.74 against last month’s 0.78. From the Nifty options activity it is evident that maximum addition of Open Interest on the call options front exists at strike price of 8000 & 8100 (with nearly 36.5 lacs & 36.2 lacs shares outstanding) indicating these levels will act as the resistance zone on the upside whereas on the put options front, maximum addition of open interest is at strike price of 7900 (with nearly 34.94 lacs shares respectively) indicating the stronger support zone on the downside.

 

Some notable long /short rollovers have been identified which have been presented below:- 

 

BANKING
Scrip (`)

Current

Last month

3M Average

6M Average

C-o-C

Summary

Icicibank

73%

57%

68%

67%

0.75%

The scrip saw better rolls of 73% against 57% in the previous month,3-mnth average (68%) and 6-mnth average (67%).The open interest for Oct is also significantly higher at 8.2 mn as against 6.03 mn in the corresponding previous month with possible shorts towards closing of the series. .A range of 1400-1540 could be seen and accordingly buying /selling could be considered.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rollover Highlights

OILnGAS

Scrip (`)

Current

Last month

3M Average

6M Average

C-o-C

Summary

GAIL

50%

68%

65%

67%

0.75%

The scrip saw lower rolls of 50% against 68% in the previous month, 3-mnth average (65%) and 6-mnth average (67%) hinting as possible absence of short rolls.Buying could be considered in the 430-440 levels for a possible target of 465.

 

 

 

 

 

FMCG
Scrip (`)

Current

Last month

3M Average

6M Average

C-o-C

Summary

Tataglobal

93%

91%

90%

89%

0.75%

The scrip saw aggressive rolls of 93% against 91% in the previous month, 3-mnth average (90%) and 6-mnth average (89%).Buying could be considered in the 155-160 levels for a possible target of 180.
Hindunilvr

74%

72%

73%

73%

0.61%

The  scrip saw rolls of 74% against 72 % in the previous month, 3-mnth average (73%) and 6-mnth average (73%). Buying could be considered in the 750-60 levels for a possible target of 800.

 

CAPITAL GOODS
Scrip (`)

Current

Last month

3M Average

6M Average

C-o-C

Summary

LT

86%

79%

81%

75%

0.39%

The  scrip saw rolls of 86% against 79 % in the previous month, 3-mnth average (81%) and 6-mnth average (75%).Possible range for the series could be 1350-1525  

 

Disclaimer: Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing.

No votes yet.
Please wait...

Leave a Reply

14 − thirteen =

"Prevent unauthorized transactions in your trading and demat account- Update your mobile numbers/email IDs with your Stock Broker and Depository Participant. Receive information of your transactions directly from Exchange on your mobile/email at the end of day. Receive alerts on your Registered Mobile for all debits and other important transactions in your demat account directly from CDSL on the same day call us on 02228584545 Email : customerservice@acm.co.in

Copyrights @ 2013 Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd.(ISO 9001:2015 certified company)